Founding Partner & veteran advisor Sunyoung Kim explains how to determine whether a school is a safety, target, or reach and how to use that information to create a balanced college list.
Creating a school list is obviously an essential step in the college application process. It's important to understand that choosing schools involves more than whether you like those schools or not. A strategically designed list will factor in considerations such as stakeholder buy-in (ex. Are your parents on board with these schools also?), affordability, and a balance between where you want to go and where you're likely to be offered admission. As a result, most advisors recommend that you apply to a mix of schools that is approximately 30% reach schools, 30% safety schools, and 40% target schools.
So how do you determine whether a school is a safety, target, or reach school for you?
First, you should understand that this is not an exact science. While there are many online tools that can help you calculate your chances of admission, none of those tools can account for all of the factors that admissions officers consider (ex. quality of your essays or recommendations). Also, acceptance is never guaranteed. Some schools may have other criteria (ex. a preference for in-state applicants) that must also be considered.
Step 1. Calculate your odds.
Still, you can use online tools to estimate and understand your relative odds for different schools. For example, you can use CollegeAI to calculate your odds. To use College AI, enter a school name, and add your statistics as accurately as possible. When you get the results for a school, you want to look at your chance of acceptance, which is marked by a percentage in bold on the left (circled in the screenshot below). Note that the other percentage displayed refers to the school's general acceptance rate.
Again, this is just one of many tools that predict admissions odds. You can try using it in conjunction with other online prediction tools such as Naviance (if your school is using it) or College Vine's chancing engine. Using 2-3 tools should give you a general range for your admissions chances.
Step 2. Assign a level or category.
Once you have determined your approximate chances of admission, follow these guidelines to assign a level or category (safety, target, or reach) for each of the schools on your list:
Safety schools: Advisors’ opinions on this vary, but most advisors consider a safety school to be one where your chances of admission are 70% or higher. As I always advise my students, it is not a safety school if it’s one that you don’t want to attend, one that your parents would not send you to, or a school that you cannot realistically afford. You have limited time to work on your applications; it's unwise to waste time on schools that you know you won't be attending. Focus that time, energy, and money on schools that you're more likely to go to.
Target schools:Â Most advisors consider target schools those where you have a 25-70% chance of admission. Within target schools, there are hard targets (25-45% chance) and regular targets (45-70%). Make sure that you are including schools in both groups.
Reach schools: Reach a.k.a. dream schools are those for which your chances of admission are less than 25%. Note that the highest tier of schools (Ivies, Stanford, MIT, etc.) have acceptance rates below 10% and are considered reach schools for everyone. That said, you should be realistic and understand that the lower your grades odds are, the less likely it is that you will be offered admission.
Step 3. Refine your list.
Again, most advisors recommend that you apply to a mix of schools that is approximately 30% reach schools, 30% safety schools, and 40% target schools. Now that you know how to determine which of your schools should be considered reach schools, etc., it is time to review your list to make sure that it is a well-balanced list.
Remember!
If you have trouble or questions at any point in this process, you can always reach out to your advisor. Once you have refined your list, you should also ask your advisor or a trusted professional (such as your guidance counselor) to check your list to ensure that it is well-balanced.
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